Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
